FRIDAY,  JULY 3,  2009

MORE SARAH - AT 7:23 P.M. ET:  I've been monitoring TV cable news and internet reaction to Sarah Palin's announcement that she is leaving the governorship of Alaska.

Some analysts believe it's a poor move, anticipating that Palin's opponents will depict her as erratic, a quitter, someone who left the governor's chair in the midst of a devastating recession, someone who can't stand the pressure of office, or the attacks of the press.  And indeed, Palin did mention, at her news conference today, the viciousness of the attacks on her and her family.

On the other hand, others say that this will free Sarah to expand her horizons and become more of a true national figure in the "lower 48," as Alaskans call the mainland.  They also point out that the intense partisanship surrounding Palin, ever since her selection last year as John McCain's vice presidential candidate, has made it extremely difficult for her to get more done as governor.

It is much to early to assess this.  In politics, as in war, most of the news of the first day turns out to be wrong.  I recall when Richard Nixon, having been defeated for president in 1960, was defeated for governor of California two years later.  He held a press conference in which he famously said, "You won't have Nixon to kick around anymore."  ABC News aired a documentary called "Richard Nixon:  A Political Obituary."  Six years later he was elected president, and was reelected in a landslide in 1972.  Watergate finally brought him down.

The difference, of course, is that Nixon was a seasoned political figure, with a record as a senator and as vice president.  Sarah Palin has only a few years as governor of Alaska, and her national campaign last year exposed serious flaws.

As Mort Sahl used to say, "The future lies ahead."  It is impossible to predict the Sarah arc.  She does things her way, and her way only.  Charles Krauthammer pointed out this evening how young she is, and that, if she's willing to skip 2012, she would be well primed for 2016 or 2020.  She's only 45.  In 2016 she'll be 52, and 56 in 2020. 

The question is how she maintains herself as a national figure without holding elective office.  She can't run for governor again, and a Senate seat in Alaska may be a long shot. 

A tough road ahead for Sarah, but don't underestimate her.  She still has personal magnetism, something you can't buy from political consultants.  Ronald Reagan had been out of the governor's chair in California for five years when he was elected president in 1980.  Of course, he'd served two terms as governor of our most populous state.

And please remember that we can't predict national or international events.  Sarah can fade away, considered by many to be unprepared for the vast challenges of the 21st century.  Or, she can be just what the nation will want after the tumultuous, and ultimately unsuccessful age of Obama. 

Stay tuned.  When Franklin Roosevelt ran for president in 1932, Walter Lippmann described him as a man with no qualifications for the presidency.  Turned out well for Roosevelt.

July 3, 2009   Permalink

BULLETIN:  SARAH RESIGNS!! - AT 4:56 P.M. ET:  From The New York Times:

Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska announced Friday that she would step down by the end of the month and not seek a second term as governor, fueling speculation that she is seriously weighing whether to seek the Republican nomination for president in 2012.

Ms. Palin, who was Senator John McCain’s vice presidential running mate last year and solidified the support of the party’s conservative base, explained her decision at a news conference at her home in Wasilla, Alaska, accompanied by her husband, Todd, and other family members.

“We know we can effect positive change outside of government,” she said in making the announcement.

COMMENT:  Please see our 8:30 a.m. post. Let me gather more information.  I'll comment later.  But first reaction:  The Palins aren't rich, and she'll have no salary.  She has signed a book deal, and the advance must have been substantial for her to do this.  Always follow the money.

Second reaction:  Why announce this on a holiday weekend?

July 3, 2009    Permalink

UNBELIEVABLE, AND DISGRACEFUL - AT 12:02 P.M. ET:  There are several stories floating around this morning that point out that the U.S. is now taking a softer line on Iran than are the Europeans.  The Israeli press is reporting that the U.S. will actually oppose European ideas for new sanctions on Iran:

The United States is opposed to enacting a new set of financial sanctions against Iran that are due to be discussed in the G8 summit next week, diplomatic officials in New York reported Friday.

According to officials, sanctions against Iran are expected to top the G8's agenda. Sources are also predicting a pointed debate between the heads of the industrialized nations over an appropriate response to Iranian authorities' suppression of reformist demonstrations in Iran led by Mir Hossein Mousavi and other Iranian opposition leaders.

But...

...diplomatic sources in New York reported that American officials are working behind the scenes to prevent new sanctions from being imposed against Iran.

U.S. officials claimed that a tough stance toward Iran could backfire, bringing about an opposite outcome to that desired by those who support such measures.

The Obama administration, according to the diplomatic sources, has discarded the notion of direct talks with Iran. However, the United States is still interested in re-engaging Iran through the renewed discussion of its nuclear program through the six permanent United Nations Security Council members.

COMMENT:  Yeah, right.  Those U.N. talks are certainly likely to succeed. 

This is disgraceful.  Imagine being a freedom fighter in Iran and looking at the United States right now.  What do you see?  You see a confused administration far more concerned about a tinhorn power grabber being constitutionally removed in Honduras than about the threat from Iran.

An old game of appeasers is to claim that tough actions bring about an opposite reaction from what is intended.  Any evidence of that with Iran?  I really don't think so.

If this report is borne out by events, we are in more serious trouble than I'd thought.

July 3, 2009   Permalink

QUOTE OF THE DAY - AT 9:18 A.M. ET:  From the great Michael Barone, exposing the "logic" of Yale-affiliated Emily Bazelon, one of the editors of Slate.  Bazelon was commenting on the Supreme Court's decision favoring white firemen who'd claimed racial discrimination in the hiring practices of New Haven, Connecticut:

Bazelon, a media and law fellow at Yale, laments that the promotion test rewarded memorization and that it favored " 'fire buffs' -- guys who read fire suppression manuals on their down time." She is outraged that a fire department might want to promote firefighters who know more about suppressing fires, rescuing victims and protecting their colleagues rather than simply promote a predetermined number of members of specific racial groups whose self-appointed political spokesmen back the politicians in office.

Amen.

July 3, 2009   Permalink

SOLID ADVICE FOR SARAH - AT 8:30 A.M. ET:  Sarah Palin is one of the stars of the Republican Party.  She can bring out the base, raise the cash, and draw a vastly larger crowd any day than can Joe Biden.  But many of us who like Sarah also realize that she's deeply flawed, and must cure those flaws if she is to have a serious future.  Jonah Goldberg, writing in Townhall.com, gives Governor Palin some very good advice.  I hope she takes it: 

Dear Governor Palin,

You're blowing it...

...There's a reason why the left and much of the media establishment hated you from day one. Some hated you out of the fear that you might stop Barack Obama's unfolding coronation. Others because you seemed to expose the snobbery, arrogance and ideological pieties of elite feminism.

As Ed McMahon used to say to Johnny, "That is correct, sir."

But Goldberg points out that things have changed.  Now Palin is striking fear, not in the hearts of Democrats, but Republicans, because of things she does:

You do seem to think the best advice is for you to stay just the way you are. Leaders listen to the advice they don't necessarily want to hear.

For starters, every time I see you on TV, you're whining about unfair press coverage. Don't get me wrong: Much of it is unfair, and some of it deserves a response. But it's not presidential. It's not even gubernatorial. You are constantly taking the bait, taking up the fights your biggest fans want you to take up.

But here's the thing: Don't listen to your biggest fans. Don't alienate them either, but don't think that because the Palin4Pres crowd cheers, you're making progress. Politics is ultimately about persuasion, and you seem entirely uninterested in that, preferring instead to play the victim. Well, victims don't get elected president. Ronald Reagan was a laughingstock for liberals and despised by the press. But he didn't whine or take the bait.

Hmm.  I'm afraid Goldberg is right, and I'm a Sarah fan.

Second, peddling a few platitudes and truisms about free markets and limited government is no substitute for really knowing what you're talking about...

...President Bush had the same problem you do, which is why there's a hunger for Republicans who can effectively articulate and sell our policies and philosophy.

Ouch.  But Sarah, this is good thinking.

Here's the good news: You have time. Here's the better news: You have something no one else in the party has -- charisma. And I don't mean you have the most charisma like it's a consolation prize for not being elected prom queen. If money could buy what you have, Romney would have bought it all by now. Good politicians can learn how to win over audiences, but the great ones are born with the ability. Reagan had it. Clinton had it. Obama has it. You have it. You are the "It Girl" of the GOP.

And...

So here's my advice. Stay home and do your job and your homework. You'll still be a national figure come the primaries. But if you can't surprise your detractors with your grasp of policy when you re-emerge on the national stage, you won't win the nomination. More important, you won't deserve to.

COMMENT:  I'm glad Jonah wrote that column.  Sarah needs the advice.  It's easy to be swayed by cheering crowds, but if those crowds don't add up to 50% plus one, all is lost.  There is no prize in politics for second place.

There's literally an army in the GOP willing to go up to Alaska to help Sarah, to brief her, to get her ready.  But she has to be willing.  So far I've been disappointed in how little she's grown since last year's campaign.  She can do better, and must.

July 3, 2009   Permalink 

THE TRUTH IS GETTING OUT - AT 8:04 A.M. ET:  Despite the left-wing propaganda mills that pass for some news outlets these days, the truth about Honduras is starting to get out.  The facts, as they're being developed, emphatically do not correspond to the White House version of events.  (Surprised?) 

Reader Don Newell alerts us to an excellent piece in the Christian Science Monitor by a former Honduran official that does confirm what responsible journalists are reporting:

TEGUCIGALPA, HONDURAS - Sometimes, the whole world prefers a lie to the truth. The White House, the United Nations, the Organization of American States, and much of the media have condemned the ouster of Honduran President Manuel Zelaya this past weekend as a coup d'état.

That is nonsense.

In fact, what happened here is nothing short of the triumph of the rule of law.

Do not bother Barack Obama with such nasty facts.

These are the facts: On June 26, President Zelaya issued a decree ordering all government employees to take part in the "Public Opinion Poll to convene a National Constitutional Assembly." In doing so, Zelaya triggered a constitutional provision that automatically removed him from office.

Constitutional assemblies are convened to write new constitutions. When Zelaya published that decree to initiate an "opinion poll" about the possibility of convening a national assembly, he contravened the unchangeable articles of the Constitution that deal with the prohibition of reelecting a president and of extending his term. His actions showed intent.

Our Constitution takes such intent seriously. According to Article 239: "No citizen who has already served as head of the Executive Branch can be President or Vice-President. Whoever violates this law or proposes its reform [emphasis added], as well as those that support such violation directly or indirectly, will immediately cease in their functions and will be unable to hold any public office for a period of 10 years."

More bothersome nonsense.  Who know more about Honduran law, you or Barack Obama?  After all, he was a law professor, or, uh, instructor, or, uh, adjunct teacher...or somethin' legal.

The Supreme Court and the attorney general ordered Zelaya's arrest for disobeying several court orders compelling him to obey the Constitution. He was detained and taken to Costa Rica. Why? Congress needed time to convene and remove him from office. With him inside the country that would have been impossible. This decision was taken by the 123 (of the 128) members of Congress present that day.

Only 123 out of 128?  What happened to the other five?  Was Cynthia McKinney allowed to vote?  What about Nancy Pelosi?

I am extremely proud of my compatriots. Finally, we have decided to stand up and become a country of laws, not men. From now on, here in Honduras, no one will be above the law.

COMMENT:  How small the president of the United States looks, compared with this man.  Obama wound up siding with the likes of Castro, Chavez and Ortega. 

Barack Obama was not born on the Fourth of July.

July 3, 2009   Permalink

OUR NATIONAL HOLIDAY - AT 7:27 A.M. ET:  We enter one of our most important holiday weekends, safe in the knowledge that there are still men and women willing to defend this country, at the risk and cost of their lives, regardless of how little credit their receive. 

Talk-show host Mike Scully asks, "So, how's your fourth going?"  And he reminds us, with the picture below, how theirs is going:

Four Thousand Marines backed by helicopter gunships, push into the Helmand River Valley as part of an operation to take back Southern Afghanistan.

When I was young, and went to see Fourth of July fireworks with my family, my wise mother always reminded me that the sound and flash of those explosives were what American troops faced every day when we were at war...except that the explosives were directed at them.  I've always remembered what my mother taught me.

Have a meaningful Fourth.

July 3, 2009   Permalink

THURSDAY,  JULY 2,  2009

IRAN UPDATE - AT 7:26 P.M. ET:  From CNN:

Bloody attacks and midnight arrests, combined with a regime growing more technologically savvy, have begun stemming the flow of online information from dissidents in Iran, activists and human rights officials say.

Access to some social networking sites has been blocked in Iran since the June 12 election

Once emboldened by their ability to dodge the government and spread news about their protests to the world, many in the youth-driven protest movement, they say, are now scared of the consequences of getting caught.

"It's absolutely chilling," said Drewery Dyke, a member of human rights group Amnesty International's Iran team. "The level of fear that has permeated society now, in terms of this issue, is palpable. It's striking."

COMMENT:  The dissent will not end, although it may take a different form.  Still to be explained - how President Obama intends to negotiate with the Iranian regime over nuclear weapons, while that regime beats down its people, and has already said it will demand full nuclear freedom.  The speaking skills that win the Iowa caucuses are not the same as those that defeat the Iranian fascists.

July 2, 2009   Permalink

PRESIDENTIAL POLL - AT 6:55 P.M. ET:  The Rasmussen daily tracker continues to have bad news for the White House.  Normally, Mr. Obama has sprung back after a decline, but there seems very little spring this time:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows that 33% of the nation's voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-five percent (35%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -2. This is the third straight day the Approval Index has been below zero.

Ras also reports that overall approval of the president is down to 53%, in contrast to 46% disapproving.  The general trend since inauguration has been downward, although slowly.  

July 2, 2009   Permalink

A GRIM EMPLOYMENT PICTURE - AT 9:26 A.M. ET:  Job losses last month were greater than expected, as The New York Times just reported:

The pace of job losses quickened in June after slowing just a month earlier, casting a shadow over the Obama administration’s attempts to stanch months of stark declines in the labor market.

The American economy shed 467,000 jobs last month, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.5 percent from 9.4 percent, its highest level in 26 years, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. Job losses were widespread among the construction, manufacturing and business and professional services sectors.

COMMENT:  We may be entering a new phase of the economic turndown - what I call the "post optimism" phase.  There have been a number of optimistic statements coming out of the administration in the last few months, none of which appear to have been valid.  In a way, it's very cruel to people.  The economic picture is still very grim.

If optimism fades, the nation can turn bitter, and that can have profound political consequences.  Dick Morris has predicted that the crunch for Obama will come about September.  We don't make predictions here, but I wouldn't be shocked if Morris were right.

July 2, 2009   Permalink  

A MATTER OF TIME - AT 8:48 A.M. ET:  Some politicians just don't know when to shut up.  There was actually some sympathy, misplaced, for South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford after he admitted an affair with a woman down Argentine way.  But he couldn't stop talking, and now he is being walked slowly, by his own party, to the execution chamber:

Gov. Mark Sanford’s long and emotional interview with The Associated Press Tuesday appears to have been the final straw for South Carolina’s Republican establishment, much of which is now actively seeking his resignation.

While Sanford seemed to have weathered the storm in the brutal days immediately following his admission of an affair with an Argentine woman, his support has cratered in the wake of the AP interview in which he talked of his “tragic” and “forbidden” love for his “soul mate” and admitted to having “crossed lines” with a handful of other women.

Fourteen GOP state senators — more than half the Senate Republican caucus — have already called for Sanford’s resignation, joining a list that, as of Wednesday afternoon, included 11 Republican members of the state House and six of the state's biggest newspapers.

COMMENT:  It's hard to believe that Sanford can hold out.  He probably wishes he were a Democrat.  In that party his actions would be considered "a lifestyle choice."

The faster he's gone, the better.  The GOP needs to keep the focus on the issues, and the shaping of its 2010 campaign.  Unhinged governors are not good for the image.

July 2, 2009   Permalink 

NORTH KOREA SHOOTS AGAIN - AT 8:31 A.M. ET:  The North Koreans, thus far essentially unpunished for their nuclear and missile tests during the first months of the age of Obama, have provoked again: 

SEOUL, South Korea – North Korea test-fired two short-range missiles Thursday, South Korea's Defense Ministry said, a move that aggravates the already high tensions following Pyongyang's recent nuclear test and U.N. sanctions imposed as punishment.

The missiles were fired from the eastern coastal city of Wonsan on Thursday afternoon, a ministry official said on condition of anonymity citing department policy. He did not say what types of missiles were launched, but the Yonhap news agency said they were ground-to-ship missiles.

North Korea had earlier called for a no-sail zone in waters off its east coast through July 10 for military drills. That designation was viewed as a prelude to such missile tests.

The new launches are expected to exacerbate the tensions running high since Pyongyang's May 25 underground nuclear test and a series of missile firings. The U.N. Security Council adopted a tough sanctions resolution last month to punish the communist regime.

COMMENT:  The story's reference to "tough" U.N. sanctions is a stretch.  They're tough only if they work.  So far, the evidence on that is thin.

We look forward to a White House response, if anyone is interested.  Thus far, North Korea seems mighty unimpressed with President Obama.

July 2, 2009   Permalink

THE NATION'S DISGRACE - AT 8:14 A.M. ET:  We deal with this extensively at the current Angel's Corner, published last night.  The president is disgracing our country with his behavior on Honduras, as the Washington Times points out in today's editorial.  It's good to see some in the media breaking from the pack and doing a bit of independent shouting: 

Dictators and demagogues can rest easy on President Obama's watch. When thousands of Iranians flooded the streets of Tehran protesting a rigged election and were beaten and shot down by pro-regime thugs, the president bided his time before making a series of noncommittal statements. He seemed to hope it would all just go away. However, when a socialist demagogue was ejected unceremoniously from Honduras on Sunday by his own government for trying to establish a presidency for life, Mr. Obama instantly sprang to his defense.

Boy, does that ever nail it.  I believe Honduras will be one of those defining issues in the Obama presidency.  The facts can't be forever suppressed.

In throwing its unqualified support to Mr. Zelaya, the Obama administration is enabling America's strategic foes. This shortsightedness is truly breathtaking and underscores the incoherence of the administration's foreign policy. Smart power? We think not.

Ouch.  The knife goes in.  Finally...

Whatever the outcome of the crisis in Honduras, Mr. Obama has failed another key test of international leadership. The United States is in an increasingly perilous position in Latin America and needs solid allies to stem the anti-American tide being led by Venezuela. Mr. Obama should think twice before rushing to stand beside the likes of dictators such as Mr. Chavez and Cuba's Fidel Castro. They support Mr. Zelaya because he is a fellow traveler, a socialist in good standing, a member of their anti-gringo alliance. There's no reason for America to support him.

The failing Obama presidency.  Demonstrated.

July 2, 2009   Permalink

THE CITIZEN AS REPORTER - AT 7:48 A.M. ET:  We're seeing more citizen journalism, and some of it turns out to be very good.  Reader Hunter Schultz alerts us to an excellent report from Honduras.  Indeed, while I cannot personally vouch for every statement, the overall attention to detail and narrative in this report are of the highest professional calibre.  One gem:

The Supreme Court voted to remove Zelaya. The Congress decided to remove Zelaya. The Attorney General stated many times that Zelaya was committing illegal acts and in fact committing treason. The military determined that the poll was illegal and that their responsibility was to uphold the constitution as opposed to supporting the president.

Early Sunday morning, about 6am, the military went to the president’s house and removed him from the building. He was put on a plane to Costa Rica. This was done to enforce the ruling from the Supreme Court.

Will someone inform President Obama?  A short note will do.

Here's another quote.  The writer is referring to a referendum, declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court, that President Mel Zelaya tried to hold anyway:

It’s been said all over the press that Mel was arrested in his pajamas. I personally don’t believe that. In an hour he would have been at some polling place to vote and also to motivate those that showed up. This was the biggest day of his life. I’d be amazed if he slept at all – I know I wouldn’t be able to. There was one report that Mel was actually in suit pants and a crisply ironed white shirt when he was arrested and he asked to change into other clothes. Quite frankly, I see this as more likely.

See what I mean by attention to detail?

If there's one piece you read today, read this one.

July 2, 2009   Permalink